While
the press can afford to speculate about leaders' thought processes, governments
have no such luxury. The latter build large dossiers containing even the
smallest items that might indicate preferences, interests, abilities, and much
more. Of course, the subjects themselves are well aware of this and try their
best to confuse their opponents – and even their friends. Sometimes one or the
other side win the game or at least a given move.
In
the distant past, the distinct cultural differences added a facade of
obscurity. In modern times, however, mutual official interests in international
maneuvers have forced a rearrangement of techniques of negotiation, and even
later on in action taken. A contemporary example is the manufactured openness
of Russian, Chinese, and North Korean dealings with the United States. The fact
is that the current American presidency is capable of the same duplicity on
which these communist nations appeared to have a monopoly. One might say that
the Americans have finally figured out the rules and have begun to learn how to
play the game.
Of
course, these rules have been well known in Europe and the rest of the world.
Washington, until recently, still hadn't figured out either the rules or the manner
in which to beat them even when caught in the move. These days it all starts
with the leaders and their one-on-one meetings. For that reason, information on
and assessment of the thought process of the particular adversary has become
transcendently important. Equally important therefore is the need to know, and
understand, the forces that play upon and influence the adversary.
It cannot
be said that the leaders of Russia, China, and North Korea, for example, are
created from the same political cloth even if all three have a pretense to be
devoted to communism. Even that fact is open to dispute and careful
interpretation. One thing has become clear: all three have accepted in one form
or another, governmentally and personally, the benefits of private enterprise.
No matter what they may call it, that is capitalism not socialism. As rigid
Marxist approaches to political economics are set aside, so too it can be
judged, will other previously held dogma. This is the sort of thing that opens
the way for discussion. And they all know it.
The
Chinese in particular, are very adept at bridging all political economic
perceptions while pretending to their socialist commitments. The Russians have
long since found little need for pretense when it comes to favorable business
dealings. Chairman Xi Jinping has added another element to the matters of
international negotiation. His acumen and personal charm have become devices in
themselves. Certainly, neither Vladimir Putin nor Kim Jong-un are his equal in
that regard, though from time to time they try. However, Xi in the end must
satisfy the objectives and ambitions of the ultimately powerful leadership of
the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) if for no other reason than his own desire to
maintain a united governmental front.
All
of which brings up the importance of what is the established Chinese practice of
guanxi. It is a system
not dissimilar to the social/political structure among people of the West who
have similar backgrounds and familial ties and, on a more personal basis,
shared schooling and club relations. The Chinese Communist Party has developed
its particular guanxi beginning with those generations that participated
in Mao Zedong’s “long March”. It's the sense and reality of shared development
of modern revolutionary China. Xi's father, Xi Zhongxun, began as a communist
guerilla fighter in the 1930's becoming distinguished in the Long March and was
Mao's youngest Vice Premier. This along with his own accomplishments and
recognized intellectual capacity placed Xi Jinping well in front of his
political and social class.
In
North Korea the situation of inherited status is similar but different. Kim
Jong-un as the grandson of the revered communist leader, Kim Il-sung, and son
of Kim Jong-il who inherited his top position from his father, the earlier Kim,
was a natural heir to this supposedly “communist” regime. To add to the
privilege of Kim Jong-un's background is the fact that he spent several years at
an exclusive English language private school in Switzerland learning the
manners and culture of a European gentleman. At the same time, he became a
rabid fan of the National Basketball Association of the United States – thus
accounting for his later welcoming of and friendship with the flamboyant
player, Dennis Rodman. The import of this fascination remains a matter of
political conjecture.
The
difference with his older Chinese compatriot, Xi Jinping, is that Kim does not
have a peer relationship with his military leadership and perforce must be
extremely guarded in foreign dealings that run counter to North Korean military
interests and advice. This was important in the recent executions of top
civilian advisers and the placement of the acting Foreign Secretary in a labor
camp after the failed Hanoi summit. This action has once again created a
confusing circumstance with which to deal for the American president, Donald
Trump. The very friendly and seemingly sophisticated Kim does not have the same
intellectual, strategic and political strength as Xi Jinping. It is a hard
lesson to accept for a Washington that had expected Kim Jong-un would be able
to close a deal that they thought already had been worked out before the
failure of the Hanoi meeting.
The
foregoing points to the fact that it really doesn't matter how much you know
about an adversary if you can't exploit the knowledge. Of course, it is better
to know than not, but all that information and analysis is for naught if it cannot
be effectively utilized. Ultimately the lesson to be learned here is simple:
Intelligence is useful only when it can be exploited. Otherwise all that clever
gathering, analyzing and cataloguing becomes merely an academic exercise. How
far China and North Korea can be pushed, urged, negotiated with depends on the
combination of information gained and assessed along with the ability to take advantage
of that process. There are no short cuts!
Comments
Post a Comment