Skip to main content

China Challenges

Image
By

There is general agreement that Xi Jinping is an excellent negotiator and thus a very good businessman. Certainly, this is the way President Donald Trump has characterized him. If that characterization is accepted, the current crisis involving Hong Kong is clearly not understandable. The attempt unilaterally to alter the agreement reached with Great Britain regarding Hong Kong carries all the elements of a “deal breaker” for the several important trade projects being discussed at the highest levels of the U.S. and China. How can this occur with a supposedly carefully controlled political economy that is the People’s Republic of China (PRC)?

The answer lies in the fact that Xi Jinping really does not sit on top of an administration that is in the total central control envisioned and practiced by Mao Zedong.  On the one hand, such an evolution may seem to carry the seeds of an emerging democratic movement. Unfortunately, this would be an incorrect observation. What is really occurring is the growth of a movement against the leadership of Xi who is viewed in some circles in the PRC as too willing to accede to U.S. interests in general and the machinations of President Donald Trump in particular.

It long has been accepted that there were elements in the Chinese Communist Party that saw the maintenance of Washington and the United States as a permanent adversary on both a political and economic basis. Xi has been successful, so far, in warding off the efforts of the far left – or right – influencing how one views the situation. Ultimately, history indicates that totalitarian regimes of all hues need to have a continuing enemy on which to focus attention in order to maintain political psychological control over their populace.

The fact is that the fifty-year agreement with Great Britain along the lines of “two systems, one country” sounded good but was always vulnerable. The strongest element in the agreement was the economic benefit to China to have a free trade instrument available for Beijing's use as desired. It also was an excellent device for launching foreign intelligence operations for China's external security services. Often these also worked well in reverse for the Western world. Theoretically, it was a win-win situation for all concerned. However, the perception has grown recently in some politically strong circles in the PRC that China was giving up more than it was getting.


The latter situation may have been bound to happen in view of the Chinese Communist Party’s aim to dominate the entire region in one form or another. It's just that this ambition was seen as under attack by Xi Jinping's willingness to engage on an increasingly friendly basis with Washington - justified by the vast financial advantage gained in trade with the U.S. And here is where the problem lies. The opposition forces to Xi needed an issue to divide the Xi/Trump entente. Regaining control over Hong Kong beginning with the new repatriation of “criminals” for legal processing in China was a perfect device. Importantly, the authorities in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province were more than willing to get involved.

The natural reaction of masses of Hong Kong's populace may have been useful for the Chinese hardliners. The question now exists whether Xi can and will secure enough to move against his own party's hardline faithful. One thing is sure. He needs outside help to make this happen. Washington and Donald Trump's holding fire so far has been a help. How long that can last is the question!

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The Game Of Games

By
There has been a great deal of discussion about how one or another major international figure, and other relatively minor ones, are “in the pocket” of this or that political entity. The fact is that all major governments have at their disposal organizations and individuals who specialize in these forms of deception often referred to as “disinformation”. In brief, this activity is simply a way to disseminate propaganda and sometimes even tactically false information for operational purposes. The entire activity has been a staple of rival governmental activity since the earliest of times. Essentially, this political weapon is based on human frailties that are then exploited by the opposing group. The alternatives are endless. It's both an offensive and defensive weapon. We have seen it used recently in the case of the coronavirus where many in the international community placed blame on the Chinese government seeking to embarrass Beijing. To protect themselves, the PRC respond...
Post a Comment
Read more

After Action Report

By
The pandemic of the coronavirus (COVID-19) has exposed the shortcomings of numerous countries, but the profoundly communist Peoples Republic of China seems to have been caught up in its own political insecurity. As usual, the vastly over organized political structure of the PRC resulted in an initial effort to disclaim any role in the evolution of the new virus emanating from the city of Wuhan. At the same time worldwide, similar confused political elements sought to avoid placing blame for the siting of the virus on China - or at least quickly condemning those who did. The fact that it had been recognized in the first week or two of January – or even before that by American and other intelligence services that a new and serious epidemic had hit the city of Wuhan was kept from the public for well over a month in many cases and more in others. It appears that even Beijing's leadership were unaware of what their local security service had been reporting after they learned o...
Post a Comment
Read more

Vlad Staying On

By
The West reacted predictably when Vladimir Putin announced he would stay in office after his current term was over. Of course, this was greeted with claims of “dictatorship” outside of Russia. These claims may be justified on the face but are not very insightful. To begin with, it is important to recognize that Putin's background, parentage and upbringing have been carefully confused in official rewriting. There are few facts that seem consistent. It seems fairly sure that his father was a mechanic, but he was raised by his grandparents in most reports. Who his mother was is disputed in several accounts, though there now seems to be agreement on Maria Ivanova Putin (family name: Shelonova). None of this seem to matter very much except that he came from a 'working class” family. What is important is the general agreement that Putka, as he was called in his early years, seemed to be fascinated by the organization of the secret police, the NKVD, as it was then called. It has...
Post a Comment
Read more