Vladimir Putin: Today. Tomorrow and Whenever

There are those who see Russia as a remnant of the old Soviet Union. Vladimir Putin is not one of them. He sees the Russian Federation as a new modern nation – at least that is what he wants to see. Nonetheless it's a mistake to view today's Russia as different from what Putin does if you want to do business with him. In that regard, for him the nation is vital and strong. The trouble is that the national GDP is not equal to the level of its political importance. While the economy is improving, it is still not up to the size of Italy's GDP.  Added to this dose of reality is the fact that there are those in his regime who believe that Putin is not tough enough in his dealings with the West in general and the U.S. in particular. This is a view that is unfortunately shared by many of his military and intelligence ranking officers. The problem for these hardliners is that there is no one to replace him!

One might ask what are the issues that make his Russian detractors believe Putin has lost his once vaunted toughness. Oddly, the answer to begin with is one that also vexes many Americans. Putin's reported “close friendship” with Donald Trump is seen as contrary to Russian strategic interests. As confusing as this may seem to be, too close a relationship between a Russian leader and his American counterpart is believed to be “dangerous”, and that view is not limited to the higher political ranks. Finding left wing American views consistent with right wing Russian views is interesting, to say the least.

Much already has been made of the fact that there was no military response to the American air (and missile?) attack on Russian contract soldiers at Deir al-Zour in the oil producing eastern Syrian region last February 2018. The result of this attack was that approximately 200 of these former Russian military personnel recruited under civilian contracts were killed and an unknown number wounded. What hasn't been exposed is how seriously this “defeat” impacted the Russian Defense Ministry and its ranking officers. Apparently, Putin intervened so as not to admit there were any Russian combat troops of any character serving in Syria other than technical advisors and some security personnel.

The fact that it had been a well-known “secret” that both Iranian and Russian military personnel and aviation assets were in Syria did not mitigate the issue of non-response to the American attack that had resulted in such a severe loss of Russian life. There were many in Moscow who felt it was all because of Putin's desire to “play games” with the new U.S. president. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was unusually silent about the loss of Russian lives.

To make matters worse, there has been the strong behind-the-scenes reaction of Putin to the botched GRU (GU) mission to poison the exchanged Russian double agent, Sergei Skripal, in the UK. All in all, the onetime revered Russian leader has been under great pressure to “man up” in his dealings with the United States. Putin has responded by once again taking direct charge of approving major intel and military plans and action while at the same time personally taking the principal role in the public announcement of the successful test flight of a new hypersonic offensive missile system.

 Added to this is the massive threatening movement of hundreds of Russian tanks and thousands of combat troops to the border with Ukraine. This was combined with the blocking of Ukrainian vessels attempting to pass through the Kerch straits leading to the Azov Sea which borders both countries. Putin has pulled out all the stops in his campaign to be seen as a forceful and totally-in-control leader. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo had a meeting with his counterpart Sergei Lavrov purportedly about the American Paul Whelan who had been arrested by Russian counterintelligence. In point of fact the meeting primarily was to clarify the exact meaning of Russia's (and Putin's) new “get tough” policy.

The situation in Venezuela is ready-made for Putin to pretend to his right-wing opposition that he still is a “tough guy”. By joining with China in standing up for their long time “socialist” ally, in spite of Maduro's obvious personal venality and dictatorial absurdities, Putin believes he has shown he can defy America and its hemispheric strategy. It may seem illogical to pro-democracy Western observers, but it seems to work well in the Kremlin.

The problem now exists regarding the next steps Vladimir Putin will take as part of his program to regain recognition as the first and last word in Russian leadership. Putin is in a difficult position in relation to U.S. talks with North Korea. On the one hand, Moscow would benefit from a lessening of tension on the Korean peninsula and the diminishing/removal of the threat of a nuclear conflict – always a consideration when dealing with volatile and unpredictable Pyongyang. On the other hand, Putin must deal with the possibility of the U.S. improving relations to the point of actually creating a friendship with Kim Jong-un's government. In spite of the seemingly improbability of such a circumstance, it nonetheless must be considered by Moscow.

From the standpoint of Russia's “conservative” politicians (i.e. the military/industrial complex and Communist Party stalwarts) there is no obvious challenger to Vladimir Putin. They know it and he knows it. The problem is that there is no one who can be considered serious and acceptable for the post of President of the Russian Federation. While he doesn’t want to think about it, Vladimir Putin cannot avoid considering the reality of setting the scene for someone to follow in his footsteps – always important for the type of dynamic leader he has been.

It's a long way for the son of a Leningrad metal worker to have come. While Vladimir Putin clearly has no thought of retiring, he is too smart a person to ignore the desire to see his eventual legacy well carried on.