Skip to main content

What's Next With Iran

Image
By

In the middle of this October Iran will regain the legal right to rebuild their conventional weapon capability under terms of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) first agreed upon by the Obama Administration and subsequently rescinded by the Trump Administration. Nonetheless, the other members of the agreement still recognize the original terms. This means that the Tehran government will be enabled to use a broad array of non-nuclear weapons to coerce, control or even invade neighboring countries. The term “conventional” can be interpreted to include ordnance and support elements of considerable capability, just so that it is not nuclear related.

Secretary of State Michael Pompeo stated on Fox News recently that the United States could “handle” this new situation. Unfortunately, he didn't expand on that statement. Effectively, the entire issue is operationally tied to Iran's ability to make deals – usually financial. Iran never has had a problem with arranging such sensitive trade projects, overtly or covertly, in the past. This is, after all, a country famed for its commercial acumen going back all the way to the ancient Persian Empire. And no one has suggested they have lost their touch.

There are many devices used to obtain controlled, rare or even banned instruments and this includes weapons and other military-related hardware. The most obvious are the state-level arrangements whereby Iran, for example, would supply petroleum and related products to a country that needs oil but finds it too expensive. In return for the petroleum “gift” Tehran would receive an agreed collection of conventional military hardware that the other country had received under any one of the numerous accords with developed countries seeking to gain favor with the particular Third World nation.  

Military attachés keep their eye on such arrangements, but often there is little that can be done to stop it other than to bluster and threaten. This type of thing goes on even with non-banned products and now Iran will be able to arrange such matters more openly after October. This “barter” system can allow Iran to accumulate a broad range of conventional weapons. Straight financial arrangements, of course, can be made with the assistance of friendly officials.  And this is to say nothing about simply obtaining Russian or Chinese ordnance!

Less developed nations have been supplied by politically friendly governments with military equipment that the poorer country cannot afford. The supply of weapons etc. thus becomes a “piggy bank” for the usually strong internal leadership and subsequently a source of illicit arms dealing. Iranian diplomatic missions do not miss opportunities like this if they have received instructions from Tehran. Again, it's simply a system of supplying the “client” with what they want in exchange for the ordnance sought.

Obviously, the major nations of the East and West try hard to keep track of these activities and they use the information to their advantage – whatever that might be. Once again it is reasonable to assume somebody is making sizeable amounts of money during one or another phase of this “trade” operation. It's not easy to stop such activities and an economy such as Iran with assets worldwide can work out a way to get their hands on the military products they need. After all it's just business, isn't it? Or is it?

There's no question that Secretary Pompeo well knows all these devices. So how does he plan to “handle” this? It's not a rhetorical question. Obviously, the United States doesn't want Iran to increase their military capability, but controls are lacking. As reported in Britain's newspaper, The Guardian recently, Iran has tripled its stockpile of enriched uranium since November 2019. This is in direct contravention of the JCPOA. In addition, Tehran has refused to answer questions posed by the International Atomic Energy Agency regarding three reported nuclear sites. “The stockpile” according to The Guardian, “puts Iran in reach of the amount needed to produce a nuclear weapon.”

The combination of a possible rebuilding of Iran's conventional capability and an increased nuclear option not only makes Iran increasingly dangerous as an international player, it enhances its status in the eyes of various terrorist organizations it supports. All in all, this is not going to be an easily handled situation and not at all needed during the dangerous and tragic pandemic.


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The Game Of Games

By
There has been a great deal of discussion about how one or another major international figure, and other relatively minor ones, are “in the pocket” of this or that political entity. The fact is that all major governments have at their disposal organizations and individuals who specialize in these forms of deception often referred to as “disinformation”. In brief, this activity is simply a way to disseminate propaganda and sometimes even tactically false information for operational purposes. The entire activity has been a staple of rival governmental activity since the earliest of times. Essentially, this political weapon is based on human frailties that are then exploited by the opposing group. The alternatives are endless. It's both an offensive and defensive weapon. We have seen it used recently in the case of the coronavirus where many in the international community placed blame on the Chinese government seeking to embarrass Beijing. To protect themselves, the PRC respond...
Post a Comment
Read more

After Action Report

By
The pandemic of the coronavirus (COVID-19) has exposed the shortcomings of numerous countries, but the profoundly communist Peoples Republic of China seems to have been caught up in its own political insecurity. As usual, the vastly over organized political structure of the PRC resulted in an initial effort to disclaim any role in the evolution of the new virus emanating from the city of Wuhan. At the same time worldwide, similar confused political elements sought to avoid placing blame for the siting of the virus on China - or at least quickly condemning those who did. The fact that it had been recognized in the first week or two of January – or even before that by American and other intelligence services that a new and serious epidemic had hit the city of Wuhan was kept from the public for well over a month in many cases and more in others. It appears that even Beijing's leadership were unaware of what their local security service had been reporting after they learned o...
Post a Comment
Read more

Vlad Staying On

By
The West reacted predictably when Vladimir Putin announced he would stay in office after his current term was over. Of course, this was greeted with claims of “dictatorship” outside of Russia. These claims may be justified on the face but are not very insightful. To begin with, it is important to recognize that Putin's background, parentage and upbringing have been carefully confused in official rewriting. There are few facts that seem consistent. It seems fairly sure that his father was a mechanic, but he was raised by his grandparents in most reports. Who his mother was is disputed in several accounts, though there now seems to be agreement on Maria Ivanova Putin (family name: Shelonova). None of this seem to matter very much except that he came from a 'working class” family. What is important is the general agreement that Putka, as he was called in his early years, seemed to be fascinated by the organization of the secret police, the NKVD, as it was then called. It has...
Post a Comment
Read more