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Iranian Ploys And Gambits

Iran has organized several Islamic groups with separate interests in an informal alliance to counter U.S. military and political forces in the Middle East. The UK newspaper, The Guardian, quoting a lengthy article entitled “Iran's Network of Influence” clearly states “the balance of effective force” lies with Iran. This supposedly exists because of Iran's strategy of commitment to using “asymmetrical warfare with non-state partners thus avoiding traditional state-on-state conflict”. While countering well-organized armed and motivated Islamic partisan groups admittedly is never an easy job, it is a field of warfare with which the U.S, is well acquainted. It is easy to fall into the trap that the American military is relatively limited to what The Guardian and others refer to as conventional warfare capabilities and techniques. The original study was produced by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). In technical terms conflict between the U.S. and...

The Way It's Really Done

A major issue has been made over the order to remove U.S. troops from Northern Syria. The fact is that these are not just regular American forces. These are in name and character Special Forces. Their actual number has been estimated by various “dependable “sources to be anywhere from 50 to 1000. There even have been “reliable” reports doubling the top number to 2,000 and reducing the bottom one to 25. Hogan Gidley, the White House Deputy Press Secretary stated,” only 28 people there”. Sometimes the brass screws up things so badly it actually works to confuse the enemy. Certainly, it has totally confused the American public. From a Special Forces standpoint, the result couldn't have been better. The fact is that elements of the Special Forces have been working with Syrian Kurds for many years to control ISIS-targeted territory and the radical Islamist forces' ambition to enlarge their role in Syria and elsewhere. It was all covered under the rubric of “limited military ac...

Between A Rock And A Hard Place

The chances of evolving a new trade agreement with China have become highly questionable - and this is despite fact that both of the leaders of the United States and PRC want the accord. The ongoing struggle by the young people of Hong Kong for freedom and independence of governance was justified by the 1997 statute agreed upon with the U.K. These young people are willing to die and the Chinese authorities, civilian and military, are willing to kill them. Why has this happened? It has happened because Xi Jinping in order to remain in power must exercise that power by gaining control of all aspects of Hong Kong's existence in civil, military and political terms. Xi has no chance any more than President Trump has any alternative but to condemn China's political military ambition all that they say is in their sphere of influence and legal right. There is no other way to say it: Many in the leadership of China are on the march to establish Imperial China in the convenient tot...

Dealing With The Iranians

It was conspicuous during the interview of President Hassan Rouhani by Chris Wallace that the Iranian leader was completely at ease in the tough back and forth of the session. There was nothing Wallace could do to rattle Rouhani politically or argumentatively. Wallace himself, appeared surprised at the Iranian's preparation and poise. The Iranian president, however, was well known to have been a lawyer and diplomat and this was not his first joust with a Western journalist. By the way, this type of training and experience marks many of the Iranian elite. Perhaps the most striking assertion by Rouhani was that ISIS was supported and guided by Israel. This type of shocking misdirection and prevarication is not only a staple of the Iranian regime's method of argumentation, it is used even in serious negotiation to disorient the opposing side and their typically well worked out, and even game-planned, positions and counter positions. This is a brilliant device for creating s...

Terrorism - An Aide Memoire

There is the perception that American involvement in wars against terrorism and even their use of terrorist tactics is something unique to recent times. This would be false and thus not solely related to contemporary political affairs.        The conflicts with Native Americans before and after American independence always had terrorism as an integral element - on both sides. Internationally we fought terrorism when we took possession of the Philippines after the Spanish American War in the beginning of the twentieth century. There are many examples of U.S. counter terrorism operations. Terrorism by Mexican bandit forces under the command of José Doroteo Arango Arámbula ( Pancho Villa) was a principal weapon against the Southwest U.S. during the Mexican Border War that lasted more than two years after 1915. In more recent times fifteen years after WWII, Washington became deeply involved in the 1960's against various African independence movements sup...

Following The Bouncing Ball Of Foreign Affairs

Signals in foreign affairs seem to be going off in all directions these days. One that caught the public by surprise was the American president's suggestion at the recent G-7 meeting that perhaps Russia should be allowed to rejoin the group. That was quickly shot down, but the effort had been made and soon after, the French president announced that Iran was willing to meet with the Americans at the presidential level. That President Putin and Russia have had a close relationship with Tehran and the timing of the Trump suggestion of returning Russia to a place “under the tent rather than outside” was never connected. Of course, this all became irrelevant when Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, told his president Rouhani that there would be no talks until the U.S. ended all sanctions. From an analyst's standpoint it looked like the great behind-the-scenes maneuvering had been short circuited. Next came the announcement from Moscow that U.S. Senator Ron Johnson would n...

China Challenges

There is general agreement that Xi Jinping is an excellent negotiator and thus a very good businessman. Certainly, this is the way President Donald Trump has characterized him. If that characterization is accepted, the current crisis involving Hong Kong is clearly not understandable. The attempt unilaterally to alter the agreement reached with Great Britain regarding Hong Kong carries all the elements of a “deal breaker” for the several important trade projects being discussed at the highest levels of the U.S. and China. How can this occur with a supposedly carefully controlled political economy that is the People’s Republic of China (PRC)? The answer lies in the fact that Xi Jinping really does not sit on top of an administration that is in the total central control envisioned and practiced by Mao Zedong.   On the one hand, such an evolution may seem to carry the seeds of an emerging democratic movement. Unfortunately, this would be an incorrect observation. What is really o...